Project Asian
Brown Clouds (ABC)
1.0
Executive Summary
About
60 per cent of the world’s population of 6 thousand million lives in
A
recent international study, the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), documented
the vast extent of the so-called Asian haze, a 3 km thick brownish pollution
layer of pollutants hovering over most of tropical
Potential
direct and indirect consequences of the haze involve regional and global
climate change, the water cycle, agriculture and human health.
Direct effects: Significant reduction in the solar radiation
reaching the surface; a 50 - 100% increase in solar heating of the lower
atmosphere; rainfall suppression; agricultural productivity decline; and
adverse human health effects.
Indirect effects: Cooling of the land surface; increase
infrequency and strength of thermal inversions that trap more pollution;
evaporation reduction; soil drying; and disruption of monsoon rainfall. A preliminary assessment of the potential
effects was carried out through the UNEP assessment report on Asian Brown Cloud
(ABC). The study confirms the simulated
precipitation change features are roughly consistent with the recent trend
derived from observations.
Needs: In spite
of the advances by INDOEX, significant scientific uncertainties remain. Since the regional scale of the pollution
layer is not known, high quality data on the haze and precursor pollutants are
urgently needed to assess the long-term trends.
There is also need to find the answers to the following basic
questions: How does the solar heating in
the haze affect the monsoon rainfall?
How does the reduction of solar energy to the surface affect the water
budget and soil moisture? Does the haze
amplify or ameliorate the warming due to greenhouse gases? How does the air pollution from
Proposal: A programme
called ABC has been initiated with together by UNEP, Center for Clouds,
Chemistry and Climate (C4) and Max-Planck Institute. Under the project ABC scientists plan to
establish a network of ground-based monitoring stations throughout
2.0
General Objectives and
Governance Structure
The
underlying principal of the project ABC include promoting regional capacity
building and facilitating interaction between scientific and policy making
process. The specific objectives are
(i) to
develop the science and capacity to study the issue of aerosols in the region;
(ii) to
assess the impacts of Asian brown clouds on health, agriculture, and water
budget under one common framework; and
(iii) to
raise awareness on the issue and promote policy actions for mitigation.
At the end
of implementation in 5 years
The project ABC will be
implemented under the overall guidance and policy directions form the Steering
committee (SC). A Terms of Reference
(ToR) for the SC is proposed the Annex 1.
At the implementation level, a Scientific Team (ST) and a Policy Team
(PT) will take the lead role for the scientific and policy related activities
respectively. ToR for the ST and PT are
provided in the Annex 2 and 3 respectively.
Scripps Institute and Max-Planck Institute will act as the scientific hub
of ABC. UNEP will facilitate the
regional cooperation and coordination among the regional institutions.
Project ABC will be implemented as a
collaborative study with the involvement of scientists from
3.0
Project Components
In order to achieve the objective the
project will have three major components namely, science, impact studies and
awareness and policy actions.
Science
The science component
will implement research and exchange programs to understand and build the
scientific details of aerosols in the region.
Major activity under this component is the establishment of
observatories. This activity will
develop about 6-8 regional air quality and climate observatories to establish
baseline measurements of pollutant gases, particulates and column burden of
aerosols from a combination of in-situ, remote soundings and satellite
measurements systems. These sites will
facilitate observations needed for estimating impacts on health, agriculture,
air chemistry and climate including solar radiation, aerosol physicochemical
properties and air chemistry instruments.
The sites will where possible be co-located with existing sites of the
Malé Declaration, the EANET and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) to promote
international synergy in terms of ease of maintenance, training and technology
transfer. Asian professionals will be
involved in all parts of the research program through exchange programs.
Impact studies
Impacts
of aerosols on health, agriculture and water budget will be studied under this
component.
Agriculture:
Economy in most of the Asian countries is agricultural based.
Human Health: Health impacts caused by the Indonesian
forest in 1997 is a well-known example of impacts of regional haze pollution on
human health. In the case of
Water budget: The haze has been found to substantially perturb the
hydrological cycle. Model simulations
with the haze show significant redistribution of rainfall with large increases
in some regions, which in turn are compensated by comparable decreases in other
regions. Meteorological observations
over past four years also show similar results.
Droughts and floods have become an annual event in the region.
A
preliminary assessment of the impacts has been complied. The report empathize the need for the detail
study. Data from the observation systems
will be used to develop models and assess the effects of the haze, ozone and
greenhouse gases on water budget, soil moisture and agricultural productivity;
to be used as background data for epidemiological studies to assess the health
impacts of the haze.
It
is proposed to advance the science and facilitate technology transfer through
a) participation
of scientists from the region in the observation stations;
b) transfer
of modeling capabilities to a Centre in the Region;
c) at a later stage the establishment of a virtual school for classes utilizing real-time video conference facilities.
A
unit within the UNEP’s Regional Resource Centre (RRC.AP) will be established
for ABC Coordinator. The Center will
coordinate the capacity building, impact studies, and awareness rising within
the Region. The Center’s activities will
be expanded to coordinate scientific research including observation and
modeling, impact assessment and education and training.
Under
this component a Project Coordinator and 3 professional staff including one
Programmer will be recruited in RRC.AP and seconded to C4. This capacity building actives will ensure
follow-up and sustainability of the initiatives.
Alternative strategies
(mitigation options) will be promoted through providing information for policy
making. The specific activities include:
a) the quantification of pollution damages in
monetary terms;
b) the estimation of the costs of alternative
strategies for improving air quality; and
c) the evaluation of alternative instruments
for implementing those strategies.
4.0
Proposed Budget and
Schedule, Resource Mobilization
Proposed activities and the tentative
schedule are given in the Annex 6. The
total estimated budget for the proposed activities are about 17 million over a
5-year period. Installation and
maintenance of a single observatory station for 5 years is about US$ 1.5
million. Detailed budget estimates are
provided in the Annex 5.
UNEP will assist to
mobilize the required resources for the establishment of observatories in Asia,
impact studies, and awareness and policy actions components in Asia. C4
and Max Planck Institute will mobilize the funding for the activities in US and
Europe respectively.
Resources mobilization activities have
already been initiated. US, EU, Japan, China, Nordics, and UNF have already
been approached for possible funding.
The Donors are currently studying the proposals for possible funding.
Annex 1:
Terms of
Reference
for
The Steering
Committee for the implementation of ABC
1. UNEP and Center
for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate has launched a project entitled the Asian
Brown Cloud (ABC) in partnership with INDOEX scientists and the Governments of
Asia. This project will make further
observations, conduct analysis and identify the impacts of the aerosols on the
health, agriculture, and water budgets in Asia.
A Steering Committee is established to provide guidance and policy
directions for the implementation of the project ABC.
2. Founding members
of Steering Committee consists of K. Töpfer, V. Ramanathan and P.J. Crutzen,
and two ex-officio Executive Secretaries:
S. Shrestha and H.V. Nguyen.
Founding members will invite individuals of prominent stature from
academia, national laboratories, industries, national governments, international
organizations and foundations to form the complete team of Steering
Committee. K. Töpfer will serve as the
Chairperson for the Steering Committee.
The number of members might vary depending on needs, but there should be
no more than 2 from any nation.
3. The Steering Committee will
(i)
sets
overall goals and objectives for Project ABC; oversees the Science Team and the
Policy Team in reviewing specific objectives, priorities, progress and
organizing structure and management;
(ii)
sets
goals and priorities for fund raising efforts, advocates the merits of Project
ABC in front of national and international forums;
(iii)
reviews,
approves and publishes reports on results form the project ABC and progress
reports on ABC.
4. The Steering Committee shall meet at
least once a year.
Annex 2:
Terms of
Reference
for
The Science Team
for the implementation of ABC
1. UNEP and Center
for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate has launched a project entitled the Asian
Brown Cloud (ABC) in partnership with INDOEX scientists and the Governments of
Asia. This project will make further
observations, conduct analysis and identify the impacts of the aerosols on the
health, agriculture, and water budgets in Asia.
A Science Team is established to facilitate the implementation of the
project ABC.
2. Membership
consists of principal investigators from the participating institutions and
countries, appointed for the first term of 2 years by the Founding Committee
and subsequently by the Science Team.
The number of members varies depending on needs. One Chairperson will be
selected for the Science Team.
3. The Scientific
Team will, under the guidance of the Steering Committee,
(i)
sets
the scientific objectives and priorities; develops and reviews scientific
plans. Specifically, selects strategic
sites for observatories and plans the instrumentation;
(ii)
design
and execute climate impact studies; recruits scientists and students;
(iii)
plans
major field experiments;
(iv)
plans
for effective education and training programs;
(v)
advises
SC on organization structure, programmatic priorities and allocation of
resources.
4. Participating ST
members are expected to do own fundraising to implement ABC-related scientific
programs at respective home institutions.
5. The Science Team
Chairperson and one alternate member will serve as ex-officio members of the
Policy Team.
6. The Science Team
meets as often as necessary but no less than once a year to formulate
implementation plans and field experiments, review progress, allocate resources
and produce annual assessment reports.
Annex 3:
Terms of
Reference
for
The Policy Team
for the implementation of ABC
1. UNEP and Center
for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate has launched a project entitled the Asian
Brown Cloud (ABC) in partnership with INDOEX scientists and the Governments of
Asia. This project will make further
observations, conduct analysis and identify the impacts of the aerosols on the
health, agriculture, and water budgets in Asia.
A Policy Team is established to facilitate the implementation of the project
ABC.
2. Membership
consists of practicing social scientists (e.g. economists, energy policy
specialists and environmental scientists) and senior officials from the
participating organization, institutions and countries, appointed by the
Steering Committee for the first term of 2 years, and subsequently by the
Policy Team. The number of members
varies depending on needs. One
Chairperson will be selected for the Policy Team.
3. The Policy Team
will, under the guidance of the Steering Committee,
(i)
formulates
and reviews policy research plans;
(ii)
selects
strategic sites and plans for field research;
(iii)
recruits
scientists and students;
(iv)
plans
major field experiments; and
(v)
advises
Steering Committee on organization structure, programmatic priorities and allocation
of resources.
4. The
Policy Team Chairperson and one alternate member will serve as ex-officio
members of the Science Team.
5. The Policy Team
meets as often as necessary but no less than once a year to formulate
implementation plans and field experiments, review progress, allocate resources
and produce annual assessment reports.
Annex 4:
Potential Collaborating Institutions
Florida State University, Tallahassee
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
Indian Agriculture Research Institute, New Delhi
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development, Kathmandu
Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica,
Taipei
Institute for Global Change Research, Yokohama
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris
Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz
Ministry of Home Affairs, Housing and Environment,
Republic of Maldives
National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad,
Pakistan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Japan
National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi
Patel Chest Institute, New Delhi
Peking University, Beijing
Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad
School of Medicine, University of California, San
Diego
School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University,
Baltimore
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
State Environmental Protection Agency, China
State Science and Technology Commission, China
Stockholm University, Stockholm
SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START)
United Nations
Environmental Programme, Regional Resource Center for Asia and the Pacific,
Bangkok
University of Maryland, College Park
University of Miami, Miami
University of Seoul, Seoul
University of Tokyo
Annex
5:
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Project Asian Brown Clouds - Estimate Budget for Surface Observatories |
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Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
Comments |
SURFACE OBSERVATION PROGRAM, Per
Station |
|
|
|
|
|
|
suntracker (x2) |
28,000 |
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|
|
|
to aim radiometers at the
sun. One in spare |
K-Z broadbands radiometers (x2 sets) |
20,000 |
|
|
|
|
ea set of 6 Kip & Zonen
radiometers (1 set ea in yearly rotation) |
BSI-radiometer (x2) |
30,000 |
|
|
|
|
radiometer measuring solar
radiation outside of visible channels |
Cimel Sunphotometer |
60,000 |
|
|
|
|
sun photometer, to derive aerosol
radiative effects |
ozone |
13,000 |
|
|
|
|
surface ozone sampler, air quality |
Carbon Monoxide (CO) |
13,000 |
|
|
|
|
surface arbon monoxide sampler,
biomass burning |
Black Carbon aerosols |
35,000 |
|
|
|
|
Aerosol sampler for carbonaceous
aerosols |
rain chemistry |
32,000 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
quality of rain water (8K per year
for data analyses) |
meteorology station |
10,000 |
|
|
|
|
to measure winds, humidity and air
temperature |
datalogers (x2) |
4,000 |
|
|
|
|
to receive data from the instrument
and channel it to computers |
PCs (x3) |
8,000 |
|
|
|
|
personal computers for data
collection and analyses |
UPS--un interrupted power supply (x4) |
25,000 |
|
|
|
|
for instruments and computers |
MPL-multi pulse lidar, 3wavelengths +
container |
210,000 |
|
30,000 |
|
30,000 |
to detect aerosols--additonal cost
to replace laser units in later years |
Calibration of instruments |
|
30,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
30,000 |
|
Data Storage equipment (1 GB) |
15,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1GB storage with maintenace contract |
Shipping of Instruments |
20,000 |
10,000 |
10,000 |
10,000 |
10,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Laboratory construction |
60,000 |
20,000 |
5,000 |
5,000 |
5,000 |
estimated, to construct (Yr 1) and
to improve/maintenance (Yr 2) |
Tower construction |
20,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
estimated, to construct (Yr 1) and
to maintain (Yr 2) |
Electricity |
12,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
operations expenses |
Mail, Phone, Internet, Fax, Office-Lab
Supplies |
12,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
|
Travels for Site Scientist and Manager |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
|
|
657,000 |
124,000 |
124,000 |
94,000 |
139,000 |
|
Solar energy (US$12K/Kw) OPTIONAL |
250,000 |
50,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
10,000 |
estimated cost, about 20 KW of
solar power, and upgrade cost in Yr2 |
|
907,000 |
174,000 |
144,000 |
104,000 |
149,000 |
|
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Project Asian Brown Clouds - Total Estimated Budget |
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C4
Coordinated |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
Comments |
OBSERVATORIES
per year (2 new sites/year first 3 yrs) |
|
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|
|
|
|
Construction, Instrumentation and
Operations |
1,814,000 |
2,162,000 |
2,798,000 |
1,260,000 |
1,142,000 |
construction, instruments, and operations |
In-situ Training of Asian scientists and
students |
40,000 |
80,000 |
120,000 |
120,000 |
120,000 |
20K per site |
|
1,854,000 |
2,242,000 |
2,918,000 |
1,380,000 |
1,262,000 |
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IMPACT
STUDIES |
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|
Project Scientist (in La Jolla, CA/USA),
Sal + 38% ben |
69,000 |
69,000 |
75,900 |
75,900 |
82,800 |
employed by UCSD |
Post docs (Asian Posdocs in La Jolla),
Sal + ben 38% |
48,300 |
110,400 |
117,300 |
117,300 |
117,300 |
employed by UNEP RRC.AP |
Asian Visitors to US/European Labs
($10-15K/trip) |
50,000 |
70,000 |
70,000 |
150,000 |
200,000 |
visitor to US/Europe; selected by RRC.AP |
Regional
Postdocs and Students ($5-10K/ea) |
60,000 |
80,000 |
200,000 |
250,000 |
300,000 |
in Asia |
|
227,300 |
329,400 |
463,200 |
593,200 |
700,100 |
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DATA
SYSTEM DESIGN and IMPLEMENTATION |
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Project Programmer (La Jolla), Sal + ben
38% |
65,000 |
67,000 |
69,000 |
71,000 |
73,000 |
employed by UCSD |
Asian Programmers training in La Jolla |
35,000 |
70,000 |
140,000 |
140,000 |
140,000 |
Travels supports only; Disbursed through
UNEP |
|
100,000 |
137,000 |
209,000 |
211,000 |
213,000 |
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INTEGRATED
CLIMATE MODEL for ASIA |
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|
Project Progammer (in La Jolla, CA/USA),
Sal + 38% ben |
89,700 |
89,700 |
93,840 |
93,840 |
96,600 |
employed by UCSD |
2 Asian Programmers (La Jolla) |
90,000 |
90,000 |
90,000 |
90,000 |
90,000 |
employed by UNEP RRC.AP |
Asian Scientists and Programmers in Asia |
50,000 |
70,000 |
80,000 |
90,000 |
100,000 |
in Asia |
|
229,700 |
249,700 |
263,840 |
273,840 |
286,600 |
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PROJECT
COORDINATION OFFICE in La Jolla, CA |
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Coordinator 50% Salary + Benefits |
75,900 |
78,660 |
81,420 |
84,180 |
86,940 |
employed by UCSD |
Research Assistant 75% (Reports,
Publications, Logistics) |
42,780 |
45,540 |
48,300 |
51,060 |
53,820 |
employed by UCSD |
Televideoconference (line charges + call
charges)+52%OH |
15,000 |
24,000 |
24,000 |
24,000 |
24,000 |
with UCSD overhead |
Office expenses (phone, faxes, mail)+52%OH |
6,000 |
6,000 |
6,000 |
6,000 |
6,000 |
with UCSD overhead |
Travels |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
|
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154,680 |
169,200 |
174,720 |
180,240 |
185,760 |
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RRC.AP
Coordinated |
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ECONOMIC
IMPACTS |
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Consultant |
|
20,000 |
50,000 |
60,000 |
70,000 |
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Asian Visitors to US/European Labs
($10-15K/trip) |
|
20,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
|
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Asian Visitors to US/European Labs
($10-15K/trip) |
|
10,000 |
15,000 |
20,000 |
50,000 |
visitor to US/Europe |
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|
50,000 |
115,000 |
130,000 |
170,000 |
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PROJECT
COORDINATION |
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Coordinator |
60,000 |
60,000 |
65,000 |
65,000 |
70,000 |
|
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Professional Staff (3) |
90,000 |
105,000 |
115,000 |
130,000 |
145,000 |
|
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|
Premises |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
|
|
|
Operating cost (reporting, communication) |
15,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
|
|
|
Travel |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
|
|
|
Meetings |
30,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
60,000 |
|
|
|
|
240,000 |
280,000 |
295,000 |
310,000 |
340,000 |
|
|
|
Contingency (10%) |
24,000 |
28,000 |
29,500 |
31,000 |
34,000 |
|
|
|
Overhead (5%) |
12,000 |
14,000 |
14,750 |
15,500 |
17,000 |
|
|
|
|
276,000 |
322,000 |
339,250 |
356,500 |
391,000 |
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GRAND
TOTAL |
2,841,680 |
3,499,300 |
4,483,010 |
3,124,780 |
3,208,460 |
17,157,230 |
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Annex 6:
Schedule
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YEAR 1 |
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YEAR 2 |
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YEAR 3 |
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J |
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J |
F |
M |
A |
M |
J |
J |
A |
S |
O |
N |
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Immediate
Term (Jan-Aug 2001) |
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Impact
Assessment I |
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Completed |
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Short
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Project
Coordination |
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coordinator,
editor, travels, teleconference |
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Surface
Observation Program |
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Construct+Equipt
Hanimaadhoo, Maldives |
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costs
includes construction and instruments |
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Solar Energy Program |
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solar
energy will be the main power source |
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Calibration Program |
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to
purchase radiation calibration instruments |
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Construct+Equipt
station in Bidur, Nepal |
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Construct+Equipt
station in Bay of Bengal |
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Solar Energy (Bidur and BOBengal) |
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Data
Analyses and Training |
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training
provided at the surface observatories |
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Visitor
and Exchange Program |
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between
Asia/US/Europe |
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Transboundary
Transport Assessement |
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Yearly
Report |
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Regional
Postdocs and Students |
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local
personnel to operate the sites |
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Agriculture
Program |
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Numerical
Experiments |
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initiate
agriculture and climate model runs |
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Visitor
and Exchange Program |
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between
Asia/US/Europe |
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Climate-Agriculture
Integration |
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training
provided to A-P scientists/students |
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Impact
Assessment |
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Yearly
Report |
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Public
Health |
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Statistical
Studies |
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epidemological
studies for Asian mega cities |
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Visitor
and Exchange Program |
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in
conjunction with the above studies |
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Climate-Health
Integration |
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initiation
of first climate-health model |
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Impact
Assessment |
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Yearly
Report |
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Economics
Impacts |
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Quantification
of pollution damages |
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policy-related
studies coordinated by UNEP |
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Visitor
and Exchange Program |
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between
Asia/US/Europe |
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Impact
Assessment |
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Yearly
Report |
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Schedule (Continued)
|
YEAR 3 |
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YEAR 4 |
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YEAR 5 |
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YEAR 6 |
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O |
N |
D |
J |
F |
M |
A |
M |
J |
J |
A |
S |
O |
N |
D |
J |
F |
M |
A |
M |
J |
J |
A |
S |
O |
N |
D |
J |
F |
M |
A |
M |
J |
J |
A |
S |
O |
N |
D |
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Surface Observation Program |
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Data Collection & Analyses |
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for the existing observatories |
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Operation and Maintenance |
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ops expenses, existing observatories |
||
New Observatory in Pac Rim country 1 |
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construction + instruments |
|
|
New Observatory in Pac Rim country 2 |
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construction + instruments |
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|
New Observatory in Pac Rim country 3 |
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construction + instruments |
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|
Solar Energy Program |
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solar energy set up for new stations |
||
Operation and Maintenance |
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operations expenses |
|
|
Data Analyses, Calibration and Training |
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Asia/US/Europe or at the observatories |
||
Visitor and Exchange Program |
|
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|
between Asia/US/Europe |
|
|
Field Studies |
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dry monsoon expeirments |
|
|
Transboundary Transport Assessement |
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|
Yearly Report |
|
|
Regional Postdocs and Students |
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Iocal personnel to operate the sites |
||
Agriculture Program |
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|
Numerical Experiments |
|
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|
Using climate data in agri. Models |
||
Expansion to Rice Producing Countries |
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|
Indonesia, Thailand and Viet-Nam |
||
Visitor and Exchange Program |
|
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|
between Asia/US/Europe |
|
|
Climate-Agriculture Integration |
|
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|
integration of climate and agr. Models |
||
Field Studies |
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|
to collect in-situ data to verify models |
||
Impact Assessment |
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|
Yearly Report |
|
|
Public Health |
|
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|
Statistical Studies |
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|
|
expansion to other mega cities in Asia |
||
Visitor and Exchange Program |
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|
|
between Asia/US/Europe |
|
|
Climate+Health Integration |
|
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|
|
integration of health-climate models |
||
Field Studies |
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|
to collect in-situ pathological data |
||
Impact Assessment |
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|
Yearly Report |
|
|
Economics Impacts |
|
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|
Quantification of pollution damages |
|
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|
|
Policy-related studies coordinated by UNEP |
||
Visitor and Exchange Program |
|
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|
between Asia/US/Europe |
|
|
Impact Assessment |
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|
Yearly Report |
|
|
Data Access System |
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Development and Testing |
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integration of surface, satellite and model |
||
Operations and training |
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testing with regional/national resources |
||
Integrated Computer Model for Asia-Pacific Region |
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Development and Testing |
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|
integration of climate-agriculture-health |
||
Visitor and Exchange Program |
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|
between Asia/US/Europe |
|
|
Student/Scientist Exchange Program |
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Inst. For Global Sustainability, exchange program |
||
Planning for Asia-Pacific Experiment |
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To fund Asia-Pacific participants. The |
||
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